Can a collapse of current economic empires be predicted?

نویسنده

  • Agner Fog
چکیده

The social sciences have traditionally been quite week in terms of formulating scientific cause-and-effect theories that would be useful for making predictions. In recent years, however, a number of theories with predictive potential have come up. The article applies a number of such theories from diverse areas including economics, history, systems theory and evolutionary psychology in an attempt to look into the future world situation. It is found that current political and economic power structures in the world have certain similarities with great empires of the past, but also important differences. Four possible future scenarios are constructed, all of which indicate pervasive changes in the power structures of the world. None of the four scenarios are completely avoiding economic chaos, overexploitation of resources and destruction of environment. The article differs from previous studies in futurology by trying to find the most promising scientific theories from many different areas of science and applying them to some of the important critical and emerging issues of today. It is hoped that this article will inspire future studies of social change that are based more on testable scientific theories and less on ideology and wishful thinking.

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تاریخ انتشار 2014